Joseph Goebbels, the famous Nazi progaganda "spin doctor" said something like:
Repeat a lie often enough and people will start to believe it.
I've had some bluffs called because I lost inertia. I quit telling the lie for one round of betting.
Normally I think taking a "sanity check" is a good idea. See if THEY'RE willing to bet big, or raise a small bet I place. Maybe they have a better hand than I think they do.
But if they're on the edge of believing I have a stronger hand than they do, and I quit lying for one round of betting, suddenly doubt appears in their mind.
On occasion I'll pretend to have a pocket pair of aces. I'll raise pre-flop, and provided the table cards don't undo me, I'll pretend that all the way to the river with an marching army -- a continuing, constantly increasing set of bets.
Only done once in awhile, it's lethally effective. Then again, once in awhile someone else "hides in the shadow" of my leading the betting and wipes me out.
Are you bluffing for fun, to make the game more interesting when lousy cards are all you have, or are you in it strictly to win. Bluff accordingly.
Friday, February 15, 2008
The $1000 Ace
If there was ever a time you needed to be good at bluffing, it's when you hold A-2 and are confident your opponent holds A-higher.
If they hold A-J or better, your battleship is probably sunk. They're gonna call.
Unless you've violated the $1000 Ace rule.
In the Monopoly-Money games I play online, someone pairs an ace on the flop, the "typical" bet is $1000. $400 means they hit something other than the ace on the flop. $2800 or more seems to indicate they hit two pair -- or at least, that's what they want other players to think.
At least that's the GENERAL idea. Its what a player being "honest" with the other players is GENERALLY trying to communicate about his or her hand. It's what most players are willing to RISK on a pair of aces, at that point.
Based on the betting, you can generally tell what level this particular hand is; a battle between pairs, a battle between two pairs, or is there a possible flush/straight showing.
The trick is to overbet; to bet AS IF you are playing the next higher level of game, when in fact you're stuck with the same Ace pair the other guy has.
Or to bet ambiguously, betting somewhere BETWEEN what an Ace pair is generally worth, and what two pair commands.
Now, someone slowplaying a set, two pair, or whatever may sink your battleship, since they may not feel a need to raise, and thereby communicate they're actually PLAYING at a higher level.
But if you've kept the other player, who also holds an Ace, wondering the hole, err, whole time whether you simply hold an Ace with a fabulous kicker, or two pair, you may be able to win this hand.
Soo, based on all your information, decide if you're in a high-pair win games, a two-pair wins game, or whatever, and make it appear you're in the "higher level" game when you suspect you're in a dead heat with a single opponent.
Once in a while, it'll work, and you won't have to toss away A-2.
If they hold A-J or better, your battleship is probably sunk. They're gonna call.
Unless you've violated the $1000 Ace rule.
In the Monopoly-Money games I play online, someone pairs an ace on the flop, the "typical" bet is $1000. $400 means they hit something other than the ace on the flop. $2800 or more seems to indicate they hit two pair -- or at least, that's what they want other players to think.
At least that's the GENERAL idea. Its what a player being "honest" with the other players is GENERALLY trying to communicate about his or her hand. It's what most players are willing to RISK on a pair of aces, at that point.
Based on the betting, you can generally tell what level this particular hand is; a battle between pairs, a battle between two pairs, or is there a possible flush/straight showing.
The trick is to overbet; to bet AS IF you are playing the next higher level of game, when in fact you're stuck with the same Ace pair the other guy has.
Or to bet ambiguously, betting somewhere BETWEEN what an Ace pair is generally worth, and what two pair commands.
Now, someone slowplaying a set, two pair, or whatever may sink your battleship, since they may not feel a need to raise, and thereby communicate they're actually PLAYING at a higher level.
But if you've kept the other player, who also holds an Ace, wondering the hole, err, whole time whether you simply hold an Ace with a fabulous kicker, or two pair, you may be able to win this hand.
Soo, based on all your information, decide if you're in a high-pair win games, a two-pair wins game, or whatever, and make it appear you're in the "higher level" game when you suspect you're in a dead heat with a single opponent.
Once in a while, it'll work, and you won't have to toss away A-2.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Bold or Terrified
Getting out of your own head is sooooo important.
You throw out a sizeable bluff. You're terrified.
Guess what. The other players can't see that terror. What they more likely to see is bold confidence!
They throw out a big bet, hoping YOU'RE terrified.
You're not, you're merely assessing the odds it's a bluff, or that their kicker is lower than yours, and they're hoping you'll fold in fear since their hand isn't likely to hold up.
Maybe the thing to do is, every time you feel a strong emotion, ask yourself what the opposite of that emotion would be. Or what emotion THEY are likely feeling.
You throw out a sizeable bluff. You're terrified.
Guess what. The other players can't see that terror. What they more likely to see is bold confidence!
They throw out a big bet, hoping YOU'RE terrified.
You're not, you're merely assessing the odds it's a bluff, or that their kicker is lower than yours, and they're hoping you'll fold in fear since their hand isn't likely to hold up.
Maybe the thing to do is, every time you feel a strong emotion, ask yourself what the opposite of that emotion would be. Or what emotion THEY are likely feeling.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Bluffing A Pair on the Flop
Like playing with dynamite? Try bluffing when the flop contains a pair.
40-60% of the time A player will have made trips.
Trying to bluff and win that other 40% of the time is a tough game to play.
A feel for the other players at the game is the key. Will all, 100% of them fold if you bet, and none of them have it?
Or is there some other joker (like yourself) at the table who will make a stab at stealing the pot. To bluff HIM or HER, you have to re-raise AS IF you are INCENSED that they would try and steal the pot with such a stupid bluff.
Is the person holding trips smart enough to slowplay them and clean you out? Gee!
And if a 3rd player stays in, quietly calling, invariably THEY'RE the one with trips.
Can you get an EV+ out of bluffing a pair on the board? Well isn't THAT the million dollar question.
You might be better off to 100% of the time fold anytime it's not YOU holding the trips.
One thing I find almost guaranteed is the person holding the trips won't let permit a checkaround. Even if its the minimum bet, they're trying to maximize THEIR EV. So if I can't get a checkaround pre-river, i'll usually fold, figuring someone's slowplaying the trips.
Or, as I discussed in an earlier blog, unless I hold a hand that can improve to beat trips.
Here's something else to consider. YOu're going to burn up a fair number of brain cells trying to bluff this situation. You'll win a few, and definitely lose a few. If your EV (expected value) is zero from the combined wins and losses, wouldn't you be btter off to save those brain cells for better-yielding bluffing opportunities? Just a thought.
40-60% of the time A player will have made trips.
Trying to bluff and win that other 40% of the time is a tough game to play.
A feel for the other players at the game is the key. Will all, 100% of them fold if you bet, and none of them have it?
Or is there some other joker (like yourself) at the table who will make a stab at stealing the pot. To bluff HIM or HER, you have to re-raise AS IF you are INCENSED that they would try and steal the pot with such a stupid bluff.
Is the person holding trips smart enough to slowplay them and clean you out? Gee!
And if a 3rd player stays in, quietly calling, invariably THEY'RE the one with trips.
Can you get an EV+ out of bluffing a pair on the board? Well isn't THAT the million dollar question.
You might be better off to 100% of the time fold anytime it's not YOU holding the trips.
One thing I find almost guaranteed is the person holding the trips won't let permit a checkaround. Even if its the minimum bet, they're trying to maximize THEIR EV. So if I can't get a checkaround pre-river, i'll usually fold, figuring someone's slowplaying the trips.
Or, as I discussed in an earlier blog, unless I hold a hand that can improve to beat trips.
Here's something else to consider. YOu're going to burn up a fair number of brain cells trying to bluff this situation. You'll win a few, and definitely lose a few. If your EV (expected value) is zero from the combined wins and losses, wouldn't you be btter off to save those brain cells for better-yielding bluffing opportunities? Just a thought.
Overbetting
Overbetting is a(nother) form of bluffing.
At the online games I play, the "gold standard" is $1000 for a pair of aces. An ace hits on the flop, someone holding one in their hole cards NORMALLY bets around $1000
So what happens when I first sit down at a table, an ace flops, and someone bets $4000?
Since I'm new at the table, I don't know if this means they hold pocket Aces, hit top two pair, or whatever. Or if this is just some wild-ass player. At that point in the game I have no "calibration" as to what is NORMAL.
There's one other possibility. Overbetting.
I've folded two pair plenty of times to people who were on straight draws and other hands who were simply overbetting.
If they had a pair of aces, they bet like they had two pair. And so on.
Since I'm normally pretty reluctant to bet anythings subtantial on a single pair, I'll typically fold.
If they do it often enough, they'll eventually face enough showdowns where their cards are exposed for people to see what they're doing, and the table will 'adjust." It becomes $2000 for a pair of aces.
One key to detecting overbetting is that they typically have to be in late position, (at least in a pot-limit game) in order to pull it off, since if everyone else checked or raised only a reasonable amount, there may not be enough in the pot to pull it off.
If they only do it once in awhile, they'll definitely convince someone new at the table, like myself, they have a better hand than they do, and I may fold a winning hand.
I'm always surprised how well it works, usually for a player with a big stack of chips. Often, they're a no-limit player, and as soon as they hit top pair, kaboom, it's off to the races, since 70% of the time or so top pair will hold up.
Think about it.
If the flop exposes three suited cards, a possible straight, or whatever, anyone holding a flush or straighti s going to slowplay it a bit to try and maximize their revenue (no everyone some idiots will....)
The only reasonable JUSTIFICATION for betting large at the flop is a fear that your top pair, pocket pair, or weak two pair will get beaten on the turn or river, and a desire to drive other players out.
Most players will hold their weakest hand (a pair or even less) at the river; their fear is the greatest, so its where overbetting will have its maximum effect.
At the online games I play, the "gold standard" is $1000 for a pair of aces. An ace hits on the flop, someone holding one in their hole cards NORMALLY bets around $1000
So what happens when I first sit down at a table, an ace flops, and someone bets $4000?
Since I'm new at the table, I don't know if this means they hold pocket Aces, hit top two pair, or whatever. Or if this is just some wild-ass player. At that point in the game I have no "calibration" as to what is NORMAL.
There's one other possibility. Overbetting.
I've folded two pair plenty of times to people who were on straight draws and other hands who were simply overbetting.
If they had a pair of aces, they bet like they had two pair. And so on.
Since I'm normally pretty reluctant to bet anythings subtantial on a single pair, I'll typically fold.
If they do it often enough, they'll eventually face enough showdowns where their cards are exposed for people to see what they're doing, and the table will 'adjust." It becomes $2000 for a pair of aces.
One key to detecting overbetting is that they typically have to be in late position, (at least in a pot-limit game) in order to pull it off, since if everyone else checked or raised only a reasonable amount, there may not be enough in the pot to pull it off.
If they only do it once in awhile, they'll definitely convince someone new at the table, like myself, they have a better hand than they do, and I may fold a winning hand.
I'm always surprised how well it works, usually for a player with a big stack of chips. Often, they're a no-limit player, and as soon as they hit top pair, kaboom, it's off to the races, since 70% of the time or so top pair will hold up.
Think about it.
If the flop exposes three suited cards, a possible straight, or whatever, anyone holding a flush or straighti s going to slowplay it a bit to try and maximize their revenue (no everyone some idiots will....)
The only reasonable JUSTIFICATION for betting large at the flop is a fear that your top pair, pocket pair, or weak two pair will get beaten on the turn or river, and a desire to drive other players out.
Most players will hold their weakest hand (a pair or even less) at the river; their fear is the greatest, so its where overbetting will have its maximum effect.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Short-Handed Tables
There are a few things you can be fairly sure of at a table with 8 or more players.
If there's a straight or a flush to be had, someone probably has it.
Even if it's just a pair on the flop, chances are 60% someone has trips.
All these calculations go out the window when there are only 4-5 players at the table.
There will be many flushes that don't get "made".
There will be hands where nobody has an Ace to match the inevitable one on the river.
Bluffing becomes even more powerful when there are fewer players, and less likelihood of anyone having these table winning hands.
You often bluff to narrow the field, and pray someone doesn't complete a flush.
In this game you're already starting with a narrow field.
I'm still learning how to play short-handed. More later.
If there's a straight or a flush to be had, someone probably has it.
Even if it's just a pair on the flop, chances are 60% someone has trips.
All these calculations go out the window when there are only 4-5 players at the table.
There will be many flushes that don't get "made".
There will be hands where nobody has an Ace to match the inevitable one on the river.
Bluffing becomes even more powerful when there are fewer players, and less likelihood of anyone having these table winning hands.
You often bluff to narrow the field, and pray someone doesn't complete a flush.
In this game you're already starting with a narrow field.
I'm still learning how to play short-handed. More later.
Don't Throw That Hand Away -- Yet!
the more online poker you play, the more you tend to multi-table.
the more you multi-table, the more often you tend to discard junk cards.
wait a minute!
they're only junk if somebody has a better hand!
If there's garbage on the flop, and a check around, shouldn't you be looking at this as a bluffing opportunity rather than simply mucking your cards?
Of course you should.
It's just that you don't have time to if you're multi-tabling. Bluffing requires that you actually be AT the table, notice that player who hesitates --- MIGHT have a pair -- but decides to check -- and so on.
The goal of poker is to win the maximum amount of money. When you fold, especially when you could check, you're tossing away opportunity. Sometimes it's the right thing to do. But not always.
the more you multi-table, the more often you tend to discard junk cards.
wait a minute!
they're only junk if somebody has a better hand!
If there's garbage on the flop, and a check around, shouldn't you be looking at this as a bluffing opportunity rather than simply mucking your cards?
Of course you should.
It's just that you don't have time to if you're multi-tabling. Bluffing requires that you actually be AT the table, notice that player who hesitates --- MIGHT have a pair -- but decides to check -- and so on.
The goal of poker is to win the maximum amount of money. When you fold, especially when you could check, you're tossing away opportunity. Sometimes it's the right thing to do. But not always.
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