Overbetting

Overbetting is a(nother) form of bluffing.

At the online games I play, the "gold standard" is $1000 for a pair of aces. An ace hits on the flop, someone holding one in their hole cards NORMALLY bets around $1000

So what happens when I first sit down at a table, an ace flops, and someone bets $4000?

Since I'm new at the table, I don't know if this means they hold pocket Aces, hit top two pair, or whatever. Or if this is just some wild-ass player. At that point in the game I have no "calibration" as to what is NORMAL.


There's one other possibility. Overbetting.

I've folded two pair plenty of times to people who were on straight draws and other hands who were simply overbetting.

If they had a pair of aces, they bet like they had two pair. And so on.

Since I'm normally pretty reluctant to bet anythings subtantial on a single pair, I'll typically fold.

If they do it often enough, they'll eventually face enough showdowns where their cards are exposed for people to see what they're doing, and the table will 'adjust." It becomes $2000 for a pair of aces.

One key to detecting overbetting is that they typically have to be in late position, (at least in a pot-limit game) in order to pull it off, since if everyone else checked or raised only a reasonable amount, there may not be enough in the pot to pull it off.

If they only do it once in awhile, they'll definitely convince someone new at the table, like myself, they have a better hand than they do, and I may fold a winning hand.

I'm always surprised how well it works, usually for a player with a big stack of chips. Often, they're a no-limit player, and as soon as they hit top pair, kaboom, it's off to the races, since 70% of the time or so top pair will hold up.

Think about it.

If the flop exposes three suited cards, a possible straight, or whatever, anyone holding a flush or straighti s going to slowplay it a bit to try and maximize their revenue (no everyone some idiots will....)

The only reasonable JUSTIFICATION for betting large at the flop is a fear that your top pair, pocket pair, or weak two pair will get beaten on the turn or river, and a desire to drive other players out.

Most players will hold their weakest hand (a pair or even less) at the river; their fear is the greatest, so its where overbetting will have its maximum effect.