Monday, December 31, 2007

Scare Cards and Fishing

The flop shows a pair. Or a possible flush (pf) shows up at the turn. Someone bets a significant amount.

Unless you have the hole card that makes trips, or hole cards (plural) that make a flush, you have to fold.

Why? Poker is essentially about taking your winnings when you can, but mostly, avoiding losses.

So frequently, the first person to raise big after scare cards appear whether they made the trips or flush or not gets all the other players to fold.

Some exceptions.

Players too dumb to recognize the scare cards and the threat they pose.
A player with a hand that can, or possibly can beat the scare cards - who'll take that risk.
A player who believes the person playing off the scare cards is bluffing.
A person whose hand the scare cards actually gives the trips or flush to.

Let's call it "fishing."

Like other bluffs, fishing works better against fewer opponents than against more.

It doesn't work very well at all if you try it too often.

Getting caught at it, as always, can be both a good thing and a bad thing. It makes other players more likely to call you when you really have the winning hand.

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia works well for me at poker.

See, I'm always playing two hands. The one I was dealt and the one I want them to THINK I have.

Say the flop is 6-9-Q.

If I've got a 6 or 9, I'm going to bet it like I've got a Queen.

The picture I paint for them to imagine is sometimes far different from the one I'm looking at.

If I've got a Queen, I may bet it like I've got a 6 or a 9 --- especially, if a second 6 or 9 comes up. I throw in a BIG bet, and the only guy who usually calls is the one who really has it. No big deal, I've still got a Queen to work with.

Point is, they can't see the cards I don't have.

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

A Shot Across the Bow

I've made some serious money on pocket pairs. Well, at least, on Jacks and above.

People don't seem to believe I've got the winning hand no matter how much I raise pre-flop, or at the flop. They'll call almost anything.

Maybe its because they can't SEE my hand. If there's 2-5-10 on the board, the only threat they can "see" is a pair of tens, or maybe two pairs -- tens and fives. And who knows, maybe they HAVE one of those pairs. The fact that I'm raising them with overcards, well, the light just doesn't go on for a lot of players until it's too late.

Bluffing works similarly. Players need to see and recognize a CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER to their financial well being.

Ever missed seeing a straight on a board?

Bluffing, you're counting on your opponent seeing the "scare cards" on the table. That's part of why bluffing works good players versus mediocre ones. They miss less.

You've been looking for signals. The other players are showing signs of weakness -- either small bets, or checking. Now you're about to fire a shot across their bow.

Make sure they can see it.

Bluffing the Blinds

Are you insane? How could you bluff the blinds?

Consider this, you have just as much chance of matching one or both hole cards on the flop with 4-5 as you do A-K.

the only advantage of higher ranking cards is they beat lower ranking ones, provided you both have the same hand -- a pair, two pair, whatever.

Statistically, 4-5 will come up just as often on the flop as A-K.

So there's this big round of pre-flop betting. The smarter players all have royalty in their hand -- at the very least an Ace or King, and hopefully that's matched to 10 or above.

Most of the time, what comes up on the flop is garbage, not more royalty.

And that's when "garbage" cards like 4-5 can win.

Big deal, SO WHAT you say.

The BIG DEAL is that, provided you're playing with decent poker players, most of whom only call that big pre-flop betting if they have royalty for hole cards.

You now know know they don't have squat.

Got it?

Which would you rather have, a shoot-out with other royalty holders or a slam-dunk because you're the only player playing garbage.

Chip Conservation

Maybe you're moving up from a 5 to a 25 dollar table. You've got a smaller stake than the other players, you can ONLY play winning hands. Nut hands. In fact, you don't even call the blinds unless your hand is socked with royalty.

You've got a 10-J full house, the other guy bets like he's got the J-10 full house.

You have no choice but fold. You're in chip conservation mode.

Now turn it around. If you're the stronger player, the one with the bigger bankroll, you're gonna always use the Wonderbra*** technique on a player in chip conservation mode.

*** Wonderbra: making things look bigger than they really are.

Call it bullying, call it whatever you want to, it's not nice, it's not polite, and that's all part of playing poker.

Now, some players never go INTO chip conservation mode. They'll take a final swing on anything, even a low pair.

Other players, you say BOO and they're gone.

It's THOSE players you have to look out for when you say BOO and they don't flinch, or even turn around and re-raise you. A player in chip conservation is always serious, and almost NEVER bluffs.

Don't get ahead of yourself with bluffing. Pull it out of the bag now and then in an appropriate situtation. Stuff your bra a little bit. But don't try and substitute it for good, solid play, which means betting the hands you can win, raising the ones you'll definitely win, and folding the rest.

Bluffing Paranoia

Here's the problem with bluffing.

It's like the movie the Sixth Sense.

Once you start bluffing, you'll start seeing bluffers everywhere.

DO NOT START CALLING BETS ASSUMING THEY'RE BLUFFS.

95% of the time, THEY'RE NOT.

It will be FAR CHEAPER for your pocketbook to believe every single bet, every raise is valid, than to go paranoid like I did.

I saw an online poker player with the "handle" "IBELIEVEYOU" Boy did that hit home, because he had an ENORMOUS stack of chips.

I'd been calling bluffers left and right, trying to teach them a lesson, and I was nearly broke from my efforts. In all honesty? I don't think I caught a single bluffer in the act!

Only call bets, especially big ones, when you have cards that can't be beat. (the nuts).

Learning to bluff is stage one. Learning to recognize and call bluffs is miles down the road from where you are today. Don't try and zoom ahead.

But...

You can turn your bluffing paranoia to your own advantage.

Every time you THINK you're being bluffed, take a look around.

What are the circumstances that led up to this person being able to bluff you, if in fact, that's what they're doing. What is their seating position. What's in the flop. What did they do before the turn, or river, that makes you suspicious now.

These are teh opportunities YOU need to start recognizing, and utilizing.

And btw, even if you're sure they're bluffing, fold.

Play the hands you're definitely going to win, not the ones you MIGHT win. Poker goes on forever. Why not just bet the sure winners and leave the "maybe-winners" alone.

And especially, leave other bluffers alone. Cause usually, they're not bluffing.

Bluffing On The River

It's showdown, at the river. You and your opponent.

Your opponent has one of three hands.

1) Something that'll definitely beat your hand
2) A medium hand -- perhaps the same as yours, perhaps differing only in rank
3) A losing hand.
4) ***

If they've got the nut, you're gonna lose. You raise, they'll either call or re-raise.

Garbage, usually we don't have to worry about. Whether you bet or check, you're going to win.

It's the medium hands where you can win money bluffing on the river.

Repeat: It's the medium hands where you....

Let's take the simplest case. You both have a pair. Except his outranks yours.

You're both weak.

NOW is the time to appear strong, especially if there's an A, K, or Q on the board.

Convince the other player you have either high pair, or even two pair or beyond.

What about trying to bluff stronger hands on the river.

Not so much. Two pair and beyond people tend to turn into calling stations.

If a flush shows up on the river, and you're convinced another player had a straight before that should you try and bluff them?

A LOT of players with anything better than 3 of a kind will call any bet. They turn into calling stations. You can't shake them no matter how much you bet.

What has this opponent done BEFORE when staring down a straight or flush that just appeared.



*** is for the player with garbage who has bluffed this far, and being a maniac, is bluffing even now. Fold. Get out of their way unless you have the nuts. Don't go on a crusade, let the other players at the table wipe this maniac out.

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Know thy enemy!

It's actually easier to bluff good players than bad ones. They're more predictable.

A bad player may not even recognize the "scare cards" you're insinuating you have.

Most good poker players will bail at the first sign of trouble -- a potential full, flush or straight on the table -- assuming they don't hold the rest of it. They make their money on the hands they CAN win, not the ones they MIGHT win.

Why shouldn't they? The game of poker, at least online, goes on forever. A good player can fold hundreds of hands that MIGHT have won and still make plenty of moolah on the ones nobody else can touch.

Unfortunately, for them, this also makes them predictable. Bluffable.

If you watch your opponent(s) awhile, you can learn what constitutes a small, medium and large bet for that person.

Based on that, you have a lot better chance of "putting" him or her on a certain set of hole cards.

When there's A-9-4 on the flop, and they throw out a LARGE bet (Large for THEM, not you) you can rest assured they've got a pair of aces.

(Assuming they're not a bluffer like you or me, using the WonderBra approach to make a pair of fours look like a pair of Aces...)

Most people can only handle so many boxes mentally - small versus large, or small, medium and large -- that and the mechanics of chips or online software makes certain size bets convenient, compared to an entire rainbow of amounts.

Which gives you a clue to what's actually in their hand.

You need to know if your opponent will slow-play because, when they merely call despite having superior cards (like 3 of a kind) a call gives you NO USEFUL INFORMATION.

Slowplaying will often reveal the skill level of your opponent; a total beginner never does it, an intermediate does it too often, and a pro will do it selectively.

Determine what hands your opponent will raise pre-flop. Royalty only, pocket pairs, or Ace or King-anything.

Someone who raises pre-flop only with Royalty (A-J, or K-Q,...) who then turns around and bets big when only numbered cards (2-9) hit the flop, chances are they're bluffing.

Most of your successful bluffs, you're gonna have a low pair, they're gonna have a medium pair, they'll see a high pair on the table, and that's it.

You may OCCASIONALLY convince the holder of a straight you hold a flush.

Knowing your enemy will give you a much better idea what he's got, and the chances of bluffing him out of it.

Avoiding Temptation

The biggest temptation in poker is to call someone else's bluff.

The bigger their bluff, the greater the temptation.

Don't do it.

Let someone else at the table teach them the error of their sinful ways.

Accept that some of the time, you're being HAD and there's nothing you can AFFORD to do about it.

90% of the time, unless you're playing against pros, THEY'RE NOT BLUFFING.

The majority of poker players in the world don't bluff. Bluffing makes many people too uncomfortable.

Point is, you can ALWAYS afford to fold a hand in poker. Always.

What you can't afford is calling a couple of big bluffs that weren't.

Live to play another hand. Always. You can make plenty of dinero on YOUR winning hands and successful bluffs. You dont' need to blow it trying to call someone elses

By learning how to bluff successfully, you are in the top 1/10 of 1% of poker players. You wouldn't be reading this blog if you weren't committed to playing GREAT poker.

So don't keep making the stupid mistake of trying to either A) get rich or B) teach them a lesson by calling other bluffers.

Play your own game.

Setting the Stage

Most bluffing in low-stakes games is done after the flop, or turn.

To make a bluff thrown in at the river credible, you have to have ALREADY set the stage. The hand you're pretending to possess must have either improved, based on the river card, or grown in value because the river was of no use to your opponent.

You must have bet at the turn AS IF you already had the hand you are NOW pretending to bet.

Kapeesh? Read it again.

Your betting at the River must be consistent with your "pretend" hand seconds before.

If it isn't, it screams "I'm BLUFFING!"

How often is this practical.

Not very.

Sometimes you may be in a semi-bluff situation, and go for the bluff on the river, having already raised on the turn, but not gotten your card.

Some players have great memories. They'll remember if you raised pre-flop, and again, mentally determine if that's consistent with how you're betting now. If there's nothing but royalty on the table and suddenly you're betting big after the river, they're gonna go, "Unh Uh!"

How many of your bluffs are going to succeed?

40-60%, depending on how smoothly you pull them off, and just pure luck.

Assuming you properly set the stage.

Who Ya Gonna Call?

The real title of this post should be "Who's gonna call YOU?"

Obviously, the guy who HAS the CARDS to win is gonna call you if you try bluffing on a scare hand -- a hand where a full, flush, or other juicy hand is clearly "visible" on the table.

Somebody who has SOMETHING, even just a small pair, and SUSPECTS YOU'RE BLUFFING is going to call you even if you go "all-in".

If you're not careful, they may even re-raise you!

Calling a bluffer becomes a matter of principle for many players long after they've abandoned any economic reason or common sense. I

n their mind, bluffing is akin to cheating! You know better. You deserve to win whether you were dealt the winning cards or not!

The trick is not to give these players a reason to call you.

Let's consider three sizes of bluff: small, medium, and large -- or "all-in"

Certainly an "all-in" makes it potentially the most painful for someone to call you. It's also the LEAST believable, if you're already suspected of bluffing.

A "small" bet won't deter enough players. "Ahh, what' the heck, let's see what Wade's got"

Therefore, a medium bet, anywhere from a couple of times the blind to 1/2 of your bankroll is usually the most effective size for bluffing.

If you've gotten "caught" bluffing, obviously, the strategy is to lay low for awhile. Pass the time figuring out who ELSE at your table might be bluffing now and then.

Other "How-to-bluff" Resources

What are my qualifications for writing this blog? Well, I'm recognized as one of the low-stakes poker world's top-five bluffers. I was on the cover of PokerStars magazine for a $249,000 bluff I pulled off -- on prime time TV, no less. I'm overall a pretty mediocre poker player, but I've been congratulated for my superb bluffing skills by no less than WSOP bracelet holders Doyle Brunson, Chris Moneymaker, and Daniel Negreanu.

Another bluff. I'm a total hack. PokerStars.com gave me $5 REAL MONEY to try and convince me to move to the cash side of their table, and within 2 days it was gone.

I had it up to $17 at one point. Quite proud of myself.

Then I became CONVINCED a certain other player was bluffing. I saw an opportunity to turn it into $34.

He wasn't, and I didn't.

I did learn some things playing penny poker you won't pick up even at the quarter tables. In that rapid-fire game, people only call when they ACTUALLY HAVE cards. The check-around click sounds like a machine gun at those tables. What I learned is that a lot of the time NOBODY GOT NUTHIN'!

It's also an unusually "ripe" environment for bluffing.

Invest $5 (against my usual advice about "online gaming", and don't use a CC) and go play for real money in the penny poker rooms sometimes. It'll give you a whole new perspective on the game.

By now hopefully I have convinced you you should completely ignore my ramblings and go read what everybody else preaches about bluffing at poker:

Start with:

http://www.wikihow.com/Bluff-in-Poker

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluff_(poker)

and

http://www.dummies.com/WileyCDA/DummiesArticle/id-1003.html

Don't leave the door open

"Fit or fold" is the mantra of the book that got me started playing Hold-Em"

It suggested if you didn't have a hand worth raising, or holding onto if someone else does, you should fold it.

What I see is "Not leaving the door open" to being bluffed.

Bet AS IF you have better cards than you do. Trust me, you'll find out soon enough if someone else ACTUALLY does.

If they raise, you know you're in trouble. Fold quickly and cut your losses.

If they fold, hurray!

It's when you allow your opponent to call that you can't learn a darned thing about their hand. Do they have what you do? Do they have the cards you're pretending to have, and are slow-playing you? (Notice, again I'm saying opponent, not opponents. Trying to bluff an entire table of opponents is a suicide mission) Yes, there will be TIMES you have to work the crowd, like it or not...

Most players want to win far too badly.

Not me. I want to lose in a controlled fashion. In a fashion I CONTROL, and not my opponent. Using exploratory bets that either give me a go-ahead to an even larger win, or cut my losses.

In fact, I'd say "controlled losing" summarizes my current strategy of play.

The LAST thing I want to do is leave the door open for THEM to bluff me.

So if I plan on staying in a hand, I'll bet it, even if I've got garbage.

Who knows, maybe that's all they have too, and they'll fold.

Practice your Bluffing

Online poker is a great place to hone your bluffing skills.

Believe me, when you first start, you're going to really SUCK at bluffing.

You'll start out with bluffs (bets) that are far too large, and then swing to ones too small to get the job done, which is to make your opponent go "Hmmmmm!"

Your emotions are going to run wild, both when it works, and when it fails.

You'll bluff too often (ok while you're practicing) and turn other players into calling machines.

You've got to practice bluffing till it's as normal and natural for you as playing the cards you DO have. And you've drained all the emotion out of it.

There's no better place to do this than online, using play money.

You've got to learn to immediately recognize bluffing opportunities every time they come up -- and not over-react when you see one.

You've got to figure out how MUCH bluffing you can get away with, and not go overboard if you bluff successfully 2-3 times in a row.

Bluffing's an important part of the game. You learn to do it well by practice, practice, practice.

When are THEY bluffing?

When is your opponent bluffing?

Darned good question. Truth is, you may never know if they do it WELL.

The first thing you have to consider is, "How good a player are they?"

Lousy players make lousy bluffers. Usually their bluffs are all-in propositions when there's absolutely nothing on the table, no possible flushes, no straights, ....

Or they're in late position and after every one else checks, they throw out a medium or large bet.
That's the bad player's idea of bluffing.

If you don't see a player making any, or many stupid mistakes, like betting in the face of a flush (and then not having it), they're probably a decent player. If they've EARNED a lot of chips since you've been watching, they're probably a pretty good player.

Good players CAN make good bluffers.

If you or anyone else has caught them bluffing, you need to pay careful attention.

I find the size of a bet (bigger or all-in is more often, not always, a sign of bluffing) and how long it takes them to decide to throw it out are indicators. (many players aren't comfortable enough with bluffing to IMMEDIATELY and INSTINCTIVELY bluff when opportunity arises, instead they have to think about it)

Neither of these "factors" are reliable, not guarantees, but they CAN be indicators.

I also find, 95% of the time, at least at the level I play at, people betting as if they have a certain hand usually do.

You can go broke quickly if you suspect everyone else is bluffing.

and GUESS WHAT. Once you start bluffing you're going to immediately start suspecting everyone else of doing the same. Call it "bluffing paranoia" or whatever you want.

Don't succumb to it.

Bluffing is rare. A lot of people are uncomfortable doing it. As if it were cheating, or not a part of the game. It feels like lying to them. They want to win "honestly."

In reality, its part of the game. If you can't bluff successfully, you've just installed a glass ceiling. You will go so far at poker, and no higher. If for no other reason, you'll fail to realize when YOU'RE being bluffed!

There will always be bluffing in poker, and there will always be cheating as well.

Never forget that.

More on Semi-Bluffing

Semi-bluffing is usually a lot more effective than bluffing when you don't have anything at all.

One form of semi-bluffing is OVERSTATING what you have in your hand. Say when the flop comes you make top pair, and then bet large. Bet as if you have two pair or better.

I don't know if this is something they do a lot on TV, but in the low-stakes poker rooms, invariably some yahoo comes in and tries this. They go all in every time they have top pair.

They may get away with it once or twice, and double their bankroll, but since it only holds up 60% of the time or so, usually, after 8-10 hands, they're gone. Everyone else is just WAITING for a chance to get their revenge.

I've gotten in rooms where 4-5 players were doing this, in essence turning a limit or pot-limit game into a coin-tossing or dart throwing contest. Time to get out.

To me, semi-bluffing is when you have SOMETHING, and on the next card you could have the winning hand. Say there are two hearts on the table. You've got A-7 of hearts. Another heart and you've got the nut flush. Anything BUT a heart and you've lost everything you've already invested in this hand.

to me this is the essence of semi-bluffing:

You can win two ways; if your opponent folds, or if a heart comes up.

Semi-Bluffing

Bluffing when you have absolutely nothing in your hand, not even a low pair, is pretty much suicide.

For starters, if you get called and they see you have NOTHING, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, you've just cemented your reputation as a bluffer.

#2, if THEY are bluffing, or semi-bluffing, you just lost.

Lets take a flop, say, 3-5-10, mixed suits. Somebody places a small bet.

You call it with 5-5

Now, you have to know what SMALL means for them? You've played against them for 30 minutes, what do they throw out when they have the winning hand versus having SOMETHING.
If you don't have even this much knowledge of your opponent, you're not ready to begin bluffing.

You're putting THEM on a 3-3, a 5-5, or some kind of hopeless straight draw.

Nothing of interest happens on the turn or river. They don't increase their bet, nor fold.

Let's say the table now looks like 3-5-10-J-7

You toss out a big bet, a semi-bluff, hoping to convince them you have either 10-10, or J-J.

If they fold and you win, great. If they call and you win, great. If they call and you lost, well, you don't look like a hard-core bluffer, just someone who overplayed their hand.

Getting Caught Bluffing at Low Stakes Poker

Get "caught" bluffing and suddenly it will become a lot harder for you to do it successfully, especially in low-stakes games, or with "play money" in online poker rooms. People will tend to call you rather than believe you. That's terrible, isn't it?

Not at all. A reputation as a bluffer allows you to really clean them out when you DO have the winning hand. In fact, when I have the nuts hand, I'll sometimes do everything I can to make it LOOK like I'm bluffing. I'll throw out a huge raise, or go all-in. But only if I' ve been "busted" for bluffing in the very recent past.

The attention span in poker is short, even shorter in online games where the players change every 30 minutes.

Don't think that once you learn to bluff successfully you'll do it all the time. Maybe 20% of your winnings, tops, might come from well bluffed hands. Most of the time you have to have the cards.

Bluffing -- One Opponent at a Time, Puhleeze!

The last sentence in my last post was "You need an opponent...." Notice, I didn't say "Opponents" You want to bluff? Stick to bluffing one person at a time. Your odds of bluffing the entire table are next to zero. Somebody either HAS the winning cards, or just wants to see what you have bad enough they'll call you. One opponent at a time is a lot easier. You need to have "put" your opponent on a particular hand, based on his or her betting, and have scare cards come up that will let you work the bluff magic. You simply can't do that for more than one opponent at a time -- most of the time. There isn't enough time in the game to deduce what cards every other player might have.

Guess what! A lot of the time you're going to LOSE when you bluff. Your opponent may actually HAVE the hand that completes the hand the "scare cards" offers! How will you know? They immediately re-raise you -- and you just lost! This is the time to concede defeat, EVEN if they arein turn just bluffing you! The key to bluffing is being non-emotional about it, and accepting both your wins and losses without going on tilt!

Scare Cards

One of the first concepts of bluffing is scare cards. I'm talking about the cards on the table, that everyone can see. Three of a suit (possible flush), two pairs (possible full house), even a pair of high cards will "wake up" the better players, and, unless they're the ones holding the winning hand, they're liable to fold if your betting leads them to believe YOU DO. My entire bluffing game began when a pretty good player said something like, "Well, you HAVE to fold if there's a possible flush" on the board. I'd been doing it a long time, but when he said it, the light bulb went on. "A better player, ONE THAT SEES AND RECOGNIZES a possible flush, will invariably fold when presented with evidence that another player actually HOLDS that flush. A not-so good player might not even recognize the freight train that's about to run him over. So for bluffing purposes, you need scare cards on the table, and an opponent skilled enough to recognize them.

Word About Cheating and Collusion in Online Poker

Before I say another word about bluffing, I need to say something about playing poker online. Don't do it for money. You can and will be cheated out of your money, either by crooked software, by poker robots (aka "bots") or by 4-5 players who collude using cellphones, Instant Messaging, or simply by setting up their laptops all in one house, right next to each other. They'll use proxy servers so that to you and the other poker players, one looks like he's in Brazil, another in Berlin, and so on.

I play online poker all the time. For Monopoly money. For fun. For practice.

If you want to read about crooked online Poker sites, Google "Absolute Poker online scandal"

Wise up. NEVER give your credit card # to an online poker site. If you already have, CANCEL THAT CARD immediately.

When you want to play poker for REAL money, do it in a "Bricks and Mortar" Casino, with real cards, dealers, and security cameras -- and hopefully, a group of players you get to know.

Introduction to Bluffing at Low-Stakes Poker

After you've learned to make as much money as you can with the cards you're dealt, it's time to start making money on the cards you don't have. Bluffing. It's not like the classic duel you see in the movies, a showdown on the very last card of the game. Most bluffing, especially in low-stakes poker is done LONG before the final card is dealt. To bluff effectively you have to bluff often, until it becomes as natural, and unemotional as playing the cards you DO have. I recommend practicing your bluffing in play money poker rooms. Begin by learning to spot good bluffing opportunities. If you're in late position, and everybody in front of you has checked, throw out a bet. That's the simplest, albeit the most transparent bluff you can make. In this blog I'm going to take you from your first few tentative bluffs to bluffing as a regular part of every game you play.