Sunday, December 23, 2007

When are THEY bluffing?

When is your opponent bluffing?

Darned good question. Truth is, you may never know if they do it WELL.

The first thing you have to consider is, "How good a player are they?"

Lousy players make lousy bluffers. Usually their bluffs are all-in propositions when there's absolutely nothing on the table, no possible flushes, no straights, ....

Or they're in late position and after every one else checks, they throw out a medium or large bet.
That's the bad player's idea of bluffing.

If you don't see a player making any, or many stupid mistakes, like betting in the face of a flush (and then not having it), they're probably a decent player. If they've EARNED a lot of chips since you've been watching, they're probably a pretty good player.

Good players CAN make good bluffers.

If you or anyone else has caught them bluffing, you need to pay careful attention.

I find the size of a bet (bigger or all-in is more often, not always, a sign of bluffing) and how long it takes them to decide to throw it out are indicators. (many players aren't comfortable enough with bluffing to IMMEDIATELY and INSTINCTIVELY bluff when opportunity arises, instead they have to think about it)

Neither of these "factors" are reliable, not guarantees, but they CAN be indicators.

I also find, 95% of the time, at least at the level I play at, people betting as if they have a certain hand usually do.

You can go broke quickly if you suspect everyone else is bluffing.

and GUESS WHAT. Once you start bluffing you're going to immediately start suspecting everyone else of doing the same. Call it "bluffing paranoia" or whatever you want.

Don't succumb to it.

Bluffing is rare. A lot of people are uncomfortable doing it. As if it were cheating, or not a part of the game. It feels like lying to them. They want to win "honestly."

In reality, its part of the game. If you can't bluff successfully, you've just installed a glass ceiling. You will go so far at poker, and no higher. If for no other reason, you'll fail to realize when YOU'RE being bluffed!

There will always be bluffing in poker, and there will always be cheating as well.

Never forget that.

No comments: