Setting the Stage

Most bluffing in low-stakes games is done after the flop, or turn.

To make a bluff thrown in at the river credible, you have to have ALREADY set the stage. The hand you're pretending to possess must have either improved, based on the river card, or grown in value because the river was of no use to your opponent.

You must have bet at the turn AS IF you already had the hand you are NOW pretending to bet.

Kapeesh? Read it again.

Your betting at the River must be consistent with your "pretend" hand seconds before.

If it isn't, it screams "I'm BLUFFING!"

How often is this practical.

Not very.

Sometimes you may be in a semi-bluff situation, and go for the bluff on the river, having already raised on the turn, but not gotten your card.

Some players have great memories. They'll remember if you raised pre-flop, and again, mentally determine if that's consistent with how you're betting now. If there's nothing but royalty on the table and suddenly you're betting big after the river, they're gonna go, "Unh Uh!"

How many of your bluffs are going to succeed?

40-60%, depending on how smoothly you pull them off, and just pure luck.

Assuming you properly set the stage.