Tuesday, December 25, 2007

Bluffing Paranoia

Here's the problem with bluffing.

It's like the movie the Sixth Sense.

Once you start bluffing, you'll start seeing bluffers everywhere.

DO NOT START CALLING BETS ASSUMING THEY'RE BLUFFS.

95% of the time, THEY'RE NOT.

It will be FAR CHEAPER for your pocketbook to believe every single bet, every raise is valid, than to go paranoid like I did.

I saw an online poker player with the "handle" "IBELIEVEYOU" Boy did that hit home, because he had an ENORMOUS stack of chips.

I'd been calling bluffers left and right, trying to teach them a lesson, and I was nearly broke from my efforts. In all honesty? I don't think I caught a single bluffer in the act!

Only call bets, especially big ones, when you have cards that can't be beat. (the nuts).

Learning to bluff is stage one. Learning to recognize and call bluffs is miles down the road from where you are today. Don't try and zoom ahead.

But...

You can turn your bluffing paranoia to your own advantage.

Every time you THINK you're being bluffed, take a look around.

What are the circumstances that led up to this person being able to bluff you, if in fact, that's what they're doing. What is their seating position. What's in the flop. What did they do before the turn, or river, that makes you suspicious now.

These are teh opportunities YOU need to start recognizing, and utilizing.

And btw, even if you're sure they're bluffing, fold.

Play the hands you're definitely going to win, not the ones you MIGHT win. Poker goes on forever. Why not just bet the sure winners and leave the "maybe-winners" alone.

And especially, leave other bluffers alone. Cause usually, they're not bluffing.

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