Sunday, January 13, 2008

He's Not Bluffing!

I seem to have hit a plateau in my poker play. It's because I STILL think people are bluffing when they aren't. Mostly I'm calling into straights instead of folding.

I still see bluffers everywhere. "They're EVERYWHERE, they're EVERYWHERE!"

Calling all-in to flushes, well I seem to have finally quit that after SWEARING I'd never do it again.

Tonight I had a little insight.

People bluff when everyone else looks weak. When they check-around or bet small amounts.

When people RAISE big after you've been betting heavily against them, it's probably not a bluff. They know you have something. The odds of them successfully bluffing you when YOU'VE got cards is low.

It would take a pretty confident bluffer to do that more than once.

So I think the thing for me, at least, is to fold in the face of big fat raises UNLESS everyone still in the hand has send signals of weakness.

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