Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Why You Shouldn't Call that Huge Bet

When someone places a huge bet, one thing is certain. They think those chips will be coming right back to them. In fact, they're CERTAIN.

When someone does this, suddenly you have to consider possibilities beyond the normal realm of betting. Like pocket pairs. Sets. Quads.

Normally we ignore the possibility of quads, and bet full houses, even flushes, without regard to the exceedingly remote possibility someone holds a pocket pair matching a pocket pair already on the board.

How good a player are they? Do they see the full house or flush on the board? Do they really think you don't have it?

I'm guilty of calling huge bets mostly because I'm blinded to the pocket kings or American Airlines (A-A) I'm holding. Give me a white cane, please!

Assuming some player who has been playing normal, reasonable, logical poker up till now has suddenly become a bluff monster will hurt your pocketbook severely.

It really doesn't even MATTER if they have the cards or not. Faced with a huge bet, unless you hold the nuts at that stage of the game, you have to fold. Period.

It's just like folding in the face of a possible flush or straight. You win at poker by winning the hands you have for sure, and folding the iffies, because you can always win more but what you can't afford to do is lose big. Big and dumb.

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