The Math of Bluffing - Reprint

Here's a truly terrible article on the Math of bluffing, from "The Dummy's Guide."

I'm only posting it here to remind myself to write a better one with more realistic numbers. This is obviously for a limit game or else the author never played poker.

http://www.dummies.com/WileyCDA/DummiesArticle/Mastering-the-Art-of-Bluffing-in-Poker.id-1003,subcat-GAMES.html

Suppose the pot contains $90, and your opponent makes a $10 bet. That pot now contains $100, and the cost of your call is only $10. Even if you figure your opponent to be bluffing only one time in ten, you should call. By calling, the laws of probability suggest that you'd lose a $10 bet nine times, for a loss of $90. Although you'd win only once, that pot would be worth $100. After ten such occurrences, you'd show a net profit of $10. As a result, you could say that regardless of the outcome of any particular hand, each call was worth one dollar to you.

Here's a better clip:

For bluffing to be profitable online, the pot odds must be higher than the odds that your opponent will fold. Let’s say you figure that your opponent will fold 1 out of 3 times you bluff in the situation you’re currently in. That’s 2 to 1 odds that your opponent will fold. If your pot odds are higher than 2 to 1 then bluffing is profitable.

Here's another thought:

Think of it this way; If you are sitting at a 6 seater table, each player has an equal chance on getting good or bad cards. Each player according to simple math should have the best hand 1 in every 6 hands, therefore if all the players were of the exact same standard, in the long run nobody would lose, and nobody would win.

Comment:
As usual, not true. Many, many hands will be misplayed. The player who makes fewer mistakes of play will win far more than the others. Making fewer mistakes will put a lot more in your bank than bluffing ever will.