Inducing a Bluff? -- Reprint

Mike from Illinois writes:

(posted at the Church of Texas Hold'Em, a very humorous place indeed
http://www.church-of-texas-holdem.com/

...

Most players are not tricky. Therefore, the hand should play out as a story. If something in the story does not make sense, it normally means the opponent is bluffing.

Consider the following scenario. [Preflop] You raise in middle position with AQos and get two callers behind you. The flop brings Qs9s3h and you bet out, and get one caller. The turn brings a 5h. Faced with a couple of draws, you bet again and again get called. The river brings a blank - 6d.

Figuring your opponent is on a draw, or possibly had a QJ type hand, you figure they won't call much. Now you may be able to induce a bluff. By checking, you invite a bluff. If your opponent takes the bait and bets out big, you have two possibilities: the opponent was slowplaying all along, or bluffing.

Most of the time, most players are bluffing in this situation. Unless your opponent is known to slowplay, they will also likely be scared of draws and will want to raise on the flop or turn. Be prepared to make a brave call in this situation.

***

How do I feel about this. Well, it sorta feels like trying to be too tricky for one's own good. If the villan was slowplaying, you just set yourself up for an even bigger loss. Why not minimize your risk, bet and take a smaller win?

On the other hand, I've many, many times experienced what he's talking about. The "story" another player is "telling" doesn't make sense. And yet, often it is my own ignorance at work, something I didn't see, and not a bluff on their part.

For instance, somebody with a low pair doesn't bother to bet on the flop, but when the turn gives them a second pair, and nobody else has shown any strength, they go big, since it's a low two pairs.

At this point, all I can say is that an inconsistent story is a warning sign, that may or may not be a tell-tale of someone bluffing.