Pair on the Flop

A pair shows on the flop.

Statistically, around 40% of the time a player has just made trips.

Any player except a total beginner will try and slowplay those trips, unless there's a possible flush (PF) or possible straight (PS) showing.

Many good players will immediately fold if they don't hold the 3rd card of the trip, unless THEY hold the PF or PS.

Usually, this stupid "dance" begins where one (brave or stupid) player throws out a timid bet, to see if it will go all the way around, as if saying, "See, it's ok to go back in the water!"

Sometimes the timid better IS the holder of the trips.

Next, the person holding the trips invariably has to double or quadruple that bet. No self control, from what I've seen.

But wait! I said only 40% of the time does somebody actually make trips.

Would a GREAT bluff be one that worked 50% of the time or more? You bet! Or rather, you should bet!

Whenever a timid bet is tossed out after appearance of a pair on the board, always take the chance if you can be the first to re-raise.

If someone actually HOLDS the trips, you'll find out soon enough, and lose your bluff money. Or some other player may have enough faith in their PF or PS to stay with you.

It's a bluff that's only gonna work, it total, maybe 30% of the time.

You can improve your bluffing odds by only doing it when YOU hold a PF or PS, in essence turning it into a semi-bluffing situation. You can win either way, if your hand improves, or if everyone else folds.

With reasonable pots, especially where the pre-flop was raised this can be a very effective bluff.